Who Is the No. 1 Flop Hero in Bollywood? A 2025, Data-Led Answer

TL;DR

• There’s no official “No. 1 flop hero” title. It depends on how you define a flop and the time window.
• If you judge by 2018-2024 Hindi theatrical releases, Akshay Kumar has the most flops by count among A-list male leads, while Arjun Kapoor has the highest flop rate (min. 5 releases).
• On a smaller slate, Tiger Shroff has a high miss rate in recent years, but also a couple of big hits earlier in the period.
• Verdicts vary by source. This analysis cross-checks Box Office India, Bollywood Hungama, Koimoi, Sacnilk, and trade reporting (Ormax) where available.
• Use the simple checklist below to judge any actor’s “flop” status yourself without the noise.

The phrase Bollywood flop hero is catchy, but it’s also lazy. Stars ride waves. They go from smashing records to getting humbled, sometimes in the span of a year. If you want a clean, fair answer, you need definitions, a time frame, and a simple way to keep score. That’s what you’ll get here.

What “No. 1 Flop Hero” Really Means (and why the label is messy)

First, what’s a flop? In Hindi theatrical terms, a flop is a film that fails to cover its total cost through theatrical revenues and guaranteed non-theatrical deals (satellite, streaming, music), leaving distributors in the red. Different trackers use slightly different thresholds, but the idea is simple: it didn’t recover.

Here’s a quick rule of thumb many analysts use:

• If India net box office is under the cost of production (plus a marketing allowance), and the distributor share doesn’t cover minimum guarantees, the verdict is “Flop.”
• If India net is close to cost and non-theatrical makes up the rest, you get “Below Average” or “Average.”
• When India net is roughly 1.5-2x the budget (and distributors are happy), you see “Hit/Super Hit.” Go well beyond that, and you’re at “Blockbuster.”

So why is “No. 1 flop hero” messy?

• No official leaderboard: Box office verdicts are reported by private trackers. They sometimes disagree, especially on budgets and marketing spends.
• Time windows change the answer: Someone can be ice-cold 2022-2024 and on fire in 2018-2019. Which version are we judging?
• OTT muddles counts: Several films went straight to streaming during and after the pandemic. Those don’t have theatrical verdicts in the traditional sense.
• Co-leads and ensembles: Who gets “credit” for a flop when a film has two heroes or is an ensemble? You need a clear method.

For the analysis below, I keep it simple and transparent:

• Period: Jan 2018-Dec 2024 (so you get pre-pandemic runs, the COVID shock, and the recovery year). As of Sept 2025, 2025 data hasn’t materially changed the picture for the actors highlighted here.
• Scope: Hindi theatrical releases with the actor in a lead or co-lead role. OTT originals aren’t counted in hit/flop tallies.
• Verdicts: Cross-checked with Box Office India, Bollywood Hungama, Koimoi, Sacnilk, and trade reporting (Ormax) where available. When verdicts differ, I default to the consensus view used by multiple trackers.

Two fair ways to ask the question:

1. Who has the most flops by count in 2018-2024?
2. Who has the highest flop rate (flops divided by total releases), with a sensible minimum of five theatrical releases?

Those two definitions give you two different names.

The Data: Who Has the Most Flops (2018-2024) and Why

If you judge by absolute count among A-list male leads, Akshay Kumar had the most flops in the 2018-2024 window, driven by a rough 2022-2024 stretch. He also had one of the best 2018-2019 streaks in the industry and a solid bounce with OMG 2 in 2023. That’s the point: box office is cyclical even for top stars.

If you judge by flop rate with a minimum of five releases, Arjun Kapoor sits at the top. He had a string of underperformers in this period, with one borderline/average showing and no clear theatrical “hit.”

Tiger Shroff? He came out of the gate hot with Baaghi 2 and War, then hit a pocket of misses around 2022-2024. On a smaller slate, that drags his average down fast.

Here’s an actor-level snapshot for Jan 2018-Dec 2024, keeping to the method above. “Hits” here bundles Hit/Super Hit/Blockbuster. “Avg” bundles Average/Below Average. Flops are outright misses. Co-leads are counted as releases.

Notes you should keep in mind:

• Counts vary slightly by source, especially when a verdict sits on the “Average/Below Avg” line. I’ve used the most common industry classifications as of 2025.
• OTT-only titles (like Bell Bottom’s pandemic-pattern overseas release and digital strategy) muddy the waters. I’ve kept them as “Avg” when theatrical data plus known deals justify that middle lane.
• Ensemble and co-lead credits are included when a star is billed as a lead (e.g., War for Tiger; Bade Miyan Chote Miyan for both Akshay and Tiger).

So who’s the “No. 1 flop hero” by the two fair definitions?

• Most flops by count (2018-2024): Akshay Kumar, due to a heavy 2022-2024 slump. He also has the most hits in the same span from pre-pandemic years. It’s a rollercoaster, not a straight line.
• Highest flop rate (min. five releases): Arjun Kapoor, with no clear theatrical hit in the period and several straight misses.

Where does Tiger Shroff land? On a shorter slate, his three clear misses in 2022-2024 weigh a lot, but the earlier Baaghi 2/War wins keep his rate from falling off a cliff.

Context that explains the misses:

• Post-pandemic tastes: Pure action vehicles and remakes faced the toughest audience pushback. You see that across 2022-2024.
• Budget creep: Rising costs and middling music/word-of-mouth turn break-even bets into losses fast.
• Franchise fatigue: Over-reliance on templates. When the story is thin and music doesn’t travel, repeat viewings vanish.

Want a few film-level examples to map the trend?

• Akshay Kumar spectrum: From Good Newwz and Sooryavanshi riding strong WOM, to the 2022-2024 run where several titles opened soft and dropped faster than expected. OMG 2 was the bright spot with good legs.
• Tiger Shroff: When the action grammar clicks (Baaghi 2, War), he wins. When the script is flimsy (Heropanti 2, Ganapath), the falls are steep.
• Arjun Kapoor: Decent performances at times, but weak openings and tepid WOM hurt, especially on mid-budget films that need strong urban word-of-mouth.

How to Judge a Flop Yourself (fast framework, checklist, mini‑FAQ)

If you don’t want to rely on debates, here’s a simple, repeatable way to judge any Friday.

Quick math you can do:

• Estimate cost (production + P&A). Trade reports and interviews often quote rounded figures.
• Use this shorthand: Flip the India net box office to distributor share at ~40-45% of net (varies by state and week), add a conservative slice from overseas (if any), then add known non-theatrical recoveries (satellite + OTT + music).
• If the sum is below total cost, you’re looking at a flop. If it’s close, think “Average/Below Avg.” If it’s well above, it’s a hit.

Speed rules of thumb (not perfect, but handy):

• Day 1 vs budget: If Day 1 is under 5-7% of cost for a star vehicle, it needs miracle legs.
• Weekend multiplier: A healthy A‑list Hindi release often lands a 2.7-3.3x opening day weekend multiplier. Lower than ~2.3x suggests weak WOM.
• Week‑1 share: 60-70% of lifetime often comes in week 1 for weak WOM films. If week‑1 is already sluggish, recovery is hard.

Simple checklist you can save:

• Budget known? (Low/Mid/High)
• Opening decent for the budget?
• WOM/Reviews aligned or split?
• Music and repeat value? (A big deal in Hindi film legs)
• Competition next week? (Or big cricket/holiday clashes?)
• Non‑theatrical sale locked early? (Reduces risk)

Common pitfalls:

• Treating overseas as bonus: For many films, overseas carry is a real chunk of recovery.
• Ignoring non‑theatrical: A film might be a theatrical flop but a business success due to a fat OTT + satellite deal. Trackers still call it a flop because the distributor lost money, but producers may be safe.
• Forgetting regional dubs: Some action films recover via dubbed versions and tier‑2/3 towns over multiple weeks.

Credibility note: The verdicts and patterns above line up with the consensus you’ll find in Box Office India, Bollywood Hungama, Koimoi, Sacnilk daily reporting and weekend/end‑run tallies, plus Ormax trade tracking for audience buzz and footfalls. Where they disagree, I go with the midpoint view that most trade folks accept in 2025.

Mini‑FAQ

• Is Akshay Kumar the “No. 1 flop hero”? Only if you define it as most flops by count in 2018-2024. He also has the most hits in 2018-2019 among the names listed here. The label ignores the full picture.
• Is Arjun Kapoor the “No. 1 flop hero”? If you define it as highest flop rate (min five releases) in 2018-2024, yes.
• What about Tiger Shroff? High miss rate recently, but not the highest by count. Early in the window, he had two strong wins.
• Do OTT releases count? No, not for theatrical hit/flop tallies. They can make a film profitable for producers, but theatrical verdicts are a separate lens.
• Why did 2022-2024 look so rough? Post‑pandemic audience taste shifted fast toward story‑first, music‑strong, and theatrical‑worthy scale. Remakes and template action struggled.
• Will 2025 change this leaderboard? It can. One clean hit can flip a narrative in a month. Check the checklist above with each new release.

Next steps and how to use this

• If you wanted a one‑line answer: Most flops by count since 2018? Akshay Kumar. Highest flop rate with enough releases? Arjun Kapoor.
• If you’re tracking just the last two years: Weight 2023-2024 heavier. You’ll see Akshay’s and Tiger’s misses stand out; also note Ajay’s split year with Shaitaan (win) vs Maidaan (under).
• If you care about momentum: Look at “last hit vs last flop” recency. Shah Rukh Khan, for instance, flipped a long slump with two monster 2023 wins.
• If you want a neutral tool: Save the checklist. Apply it on every Friday and update your own table monthly. You’ll beat most hot takes.

One final thought worth keeping: “Flop hero” is a fan‑war phrase. Industry folks track films, not labels. Stars change choices, fix budgets, clean up scripts, and swing back. That’s why these lists never stay the same for long.